Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, Guinea-Bissau has become one of Africa’s most politically unstable nations. Over the past five decades, the country has witnessed more than ten coups and attempted coups, making military intervention almost routine. Only one democratically elected leader has completed a full term in office, a reflection of the deep structural weaknesses at the heart of the state.

What began as a promising liberation movement has slowly deteriorated into what the United Nations once called Africa’s first “narco-state”—a fragile country plagued by drug trafficking, corruption, poverty, and a powerful, interventionist military. These forces together have kept Guinea-Bissau trapped in a cycle of crisis.

Historical Roots of Instability

Guinea-Bissau’s instability is rooted in its liberation struggle. The PAIGC, which fought Portuguese colonial rule, merged political authority with military command. When independence came, the former guerrilla fighters formed the backbone of the national army.

This legacy created a security sector that viewed itself not just as a defender of the country but as a guardian of the political order, giving it a sense of entitlement to intervene whenever it deemed civilian leaders incompetent or threatening to its interests.

Major Coups and Power Struggles

1980: The First Successful Coup

On November 14, 1980, Prime Minister João Bernardo “Nino” Vieira overthrew President Luís Cabral in a bloodless coup. Vieira installed a military-dominated government, setting the precedent that political power could be seized with force rather than won through democratic processes.

1998–1999: Civil War and Vieira’s Downfall

In 1998, Brigadier-General Ansumane Mané launched a coup attempt after being accused of smuggling arms to rebels in Senegal’s Casamance region. The failed attempt spiralled into a civil war between Mané’s forces and troops loyal to Vieira.

Backed by Senegal and Guinea, government forces fought for nearly a year before collapsing in 1999. Vieira fled, marking a violent turning point driven largely by rivalry within the military hierarchy.

2003: A Coup Amid Economic Collapse

On September 14, 2003, Army Chief of Staff General Veríssimo Correia Seabra toppled President Kumba Yala. The coup unfolded amid severe economic decline, unpaid public servants, and widespread frustration. The military justified its intervention as necessary to restore order, though it only reinforced the template of unconstitutional turnovers.

2009: Assassinations Linked to the Drug Trade

The 2009 killings of President Vieira and Army Chief Tagme Na Waie—within hours of each other—highlighted the growing influence of drug traffickers. Though not officially a coup, the assassinations reflected deep infiltration of criminal networks into both the military and government, turning political rivalries into lethal competition for control of lucrative trafficking corridors.

2012: The “Cocaine Coup”

In April 2012, soldiers seized power just before a presidential run-off election. The military accused the government of inviting Angolan troops to reform the armed forces—seen as a threat to military autonomy. Analysts dubbed it the “cocaine coup” because of its links to drug-trafficking interests, underscoring how narcotics money had captured the state.

Recent Attempts: 2022, 2023, and 2024

• 2022: A gun battle around the government palace targeted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who survived and blamed drug-trafficking networks.

• 2023: Clashes erupted when National Guard soldiers freed two detained officials, revealing deep divisions within security forces.

• 2024: Authorities thwarted another plot involving senior officers, demonstrating how coup planning had become almost predictable.

2025: Military Seizes Power Again

On November 26, 2025, troops arrested President Embaló and announced a takeover on state TV. The military suspended state institutions, closed borders, and claimed it acted to prevent an alleged plot involving politicians and a “well-known drug baron”. The move mirrored previous interventions—another attempt justified in the name of “restoring order” amid a disputed election.

Why Coups Keep Happening

1. Drug Trafficking and the Narco-State Reality

Guinea-Bissau’s geography—remote islands, weak borders, and limited naval capacity—has made it a prime transit hub for cocaine from Latin America to Europe. Drug profits dwarf the national economy, making corruption irresistible.

With the state unable to pay soldiers decent salaries, traffickers easily recruit security officials. By the late 2000s, the military had become deeply entangled in the drug trade, and political power became synonymous with controlling trafficking routes.

2. A Powerful, Unreformed Military

The army’s oversized influence is a direct legacy of the independence struggle. Attempts to impose civilian control or reform the military have repeatedly triggered coups, as seen in 2012. Internal divisions—especially within Balanta-dominated units—fuel factionalism, further weakening the chain of command.

3. Extreme Poverty and Weak State Institutions

Guinea-Bissau is among the world’s poorest nations. Chronic poverty, low state revenue, and corruption have hollowed out government institutions. Civil servants often go unpaid, and the state struggles to deliver basic services.

This institutional fragility creates a vacuum that military actors and criminal networks are always ready to fill.

4. Ethnic and Political Factionalism

While not the primary driver of conflict, ethnic divisions influence military recruitment, promotions, and political alliances. Patronage networks based on ethnicity weaken the state and make political consensus elusive.

5. Constitutional Ambiguity and Leadership Rivalries

Guinea-Bissau’s semi-presidential system has long produced clashes between presidents and prime ministers. Repeated dissolutions of parliament, power struggles, and governance paralysis have given the military justification to intervene as “arbiters”.